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To Save One, We Kill Three

Published On: February 1, 2022Tags: Adverse Events, Democide, Vaccines

Robert Du Broy, BSc, MBA

“Which one of you, having a hundred sheep and losing one of them, does not leave the ninety-nine in the wilderness and go after the one that is lost until he finds it?” (Luke 15:4) A good shepherd would do this only if the ninety-nine were not at risk and the stray had a long life of wool production ahead. What if the flock were 8,500 sheep, the saved stray was already beyond its life expectancy, and the shepherd would come back to find three of his younger sheep devoured by a wolf? That is, optimistically, the situation with Covid-19 injections. More than three vaccine deaths happen for every Covid-19 death prevented by Covid-19 injections.

For the sake of these back-of-the-envelope calculations, I will refer primarily to the Pfizer/ BioNTech mRNA injection and US data because they are the best documented. This biologic accounts for 58% of doses, 46% of deaths, and 45% of adverse events of the three biologics authorized for emergency use.

First, how many Covid-19 injections does it take to save one life? You have probably heard the Relative Risk Reduction claim of 95% efficacy (relative to the placebo) for the Pfizer biologic. In fact, the relevant number is the Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR), which is 0.84%. The inverse of the ARR gives the Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one Covid-19 case, which is 119. The NNV is country-specific. The NNV for Pfizer in Israel is an even less impressive 217. At the US Covid19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 1.4% , it takes 1/CFR=71.4 cases to produce one fatality. The CFR is also countryspecific and reflects both the general health of the population, the quality of health care, and the definition of a case. The CFR is 1.3% in Canada and 0.3% in Australia and Norway. To prevent one Covid-19 death, we must vaccinate NNV / CFR=8,500 people.

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As a side note, those 8,500 injections are not free. In addition to the roughly $17 for the first dose to $28 for the second dose the providers can charge for administration—to double-dose every American would cost $16 billion—there was the $10 billion Operation Warp Speed funding, the cost of doses spoiled due to expiry after a month or improper refrigeration, and the cost of the incessant promotion campaign. Assuming a modest cost per impression of $0.0125 times the population of the US times seven times a day for a year, top-of-mind awareness would cost $11.5 billion. This does not include the bureaucracy to administer the campaign. All paid for with tax dollars. I have not even touched on the social costs and the cost of administering vaccine mandates.

The second factor is how many people die after receiving the injection. A recent Columbia University study determined that the Vaccine-induced Fatality Rate (VFR) is 0.04%, or 4 in 10,000 injections.

Thus, the 8,500 injections needed to save the life of 1 Covid-19 case would result in 3.4 vaccine deaths.

The details make this outcome even less attractive. The average age of Covid-19 fatalities is about the same as the average life expectancy. One multi-country study found that a greater proportion of Covid-19- related deaths exceed life expectancy than occur below life expectancy. In the UK, the average age of a Covid-19 associated fatality is 80 years of age. In contrast, the average age of Covid-19 vaccine deaths in the US in 2021 was about 72 years of age. We would expect that average age to decrease as the injections among younger age groups become increasingly prevalent. Thus, Covid-19 does not shorten life expectancy but the injections do.

That conclusion does not even take into account the injection’s medium to long-term fatality risks. Pfizer’s product monograph admits that these are unknown. “Very rare cases of myocarditis and/or pericarditis following vaccination with COMIRNATY have been reported during post-authorization use. These cases occurred more commonly after the second dose and in adolescents and young adults. Typically, the onset of symptoms has been within a few days following receipt of COMIRNATY. Available short-term follow-up data suggest that the symptoms resolve in most individuals, but information on long-term sequelae is lacking.” (p. 18) In fact, these cardiac conditions are irreversible; myocarditis has a mortality rate of 20% after one year and 56% after 4.3 years; pericarditis mortality is 7% after five years. “The (Study 2) participants were unblinded to offer placebo participants COMIRNATY when they became locally eligible under regulatory approval in December 2020” making it impossible to study adverse reactions relative to a control group after that time. (p. 26) “Carcinogenic potential was not assessed, as carcinogenicity studies were not considered relevant to this vaccine.” “Genotoxic (causing genetic damage or alteration or preventing DNA repair) potential was not assessed, as genotoxicity studies were not considered relevant to this vaccine.” (p. 48) This seems odd for a technology that the NIH calls gene therapy.

Here are other surprising statements in the monograph. “The safety and efficacy of COMIRNATY in children under 5 years of age have not yet been established.” “The safety and immunogenicity of a booster dose of COMIRNATY in individuals 65 years of age and older is based on safety and immunogenicity data in adults 18 through 55 years of age.” (p. 4) “As with any vaccine, vaccination with COMIRNATY may not protect all recipients. Individuals may not be optimally protected until at least 7 days after their second dose of vaccine.” (p. 17) “It is unknown whether COMIRNATY has an impact on fertility.” (p. 18) “The safety and efficacy of COMIRNATY in pregnant women have not yet been established. It is unknown whether COMIRNATY is excreted in human milk. A risk to the newborns/infants cannot be excluded.” (p. 19) “No (drug) interaction studies have been performed.” (p. 33) “In a repeat-dose toxicity study, rats (experienced)… decreased red blood cell mass…Full or partial recovery from all findings was observed following a 3-week recovery period.” (p. 48) Partial recovery?

Although we have yet to observe long-term harms, the injections clearly provide no long-term benefits. The efficacy of the biologics, such as it is, wanes after three months and has limited efficacy against variants. Booster protection might diminish after 10 weeks.

Much as the Vaccine-induced Fatality Rate (VFR) cited above is 0.04%, or 4 in 10,000 injections, the incidence of adverse reactions can increase with the number of doses. Thus, VFR could increase with subsequent doses, and there appears to be no end in sight for the number of doses. Turkey is up to its fifth dose.

As the VFR could trend upward, the CFR could be on the downswing, because variants tend to be less fatal than the wild type of a virus. Variants also tend to displace the wild type. Over time, the evolving equation could lead to more vaccine deaths per injection and fewer Covid case lives needing to be saved.

In addition to fatalities, we must not forget the risk of severe vaccine injuries. VAERS records 786 birth defects, 36,758 permanent disabilities, 24,343 life-threatening events, and 113,303 hospitalizations to date following Covid-19 injections. The fatalities data also exclude the 3,511 miscarriages so far.

A good shepherd would not save one sheep at the cost of more than three now and likely more in the years to come.

Notes